Inicio INTERNACIONAL ¿El fin político de Correa?: qué significa el resultado del referendo

¿El fin político de Correa?: qué significa el resultado del referendo

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La consulta popular promovida por el presidente de Ecuador, Lenín Moreno, culminó este domingo 4 de febrero con un amplio triunfo del “Sí” en todas las preguntas.

La consulta popular promovida por el presidente ecuatoriano, Lenín Moreno, culminó este domingo 4 de febrero con un amplio triunfo del “Sí” en todas las preguntas, lo que implica -entre otras cosas- que Rafael Correa no pueda volver a lanzarse a la presidencia del país.

Pero, con los resultados en mano, Ecuador ahora se pregunta si realmente está muerta la carrera política del hombre que gobernó esta nación por 10 años.

Además de evitar una posible candidatura del ex mandatario en el 2021 (la pregunta 2 planteaba que alguien que ya fue reelegido por una vez en el cargo no pueda volver a presentarse), el gobierno se aseguró la reestructuración del organismo que designa a las autoridades de control estatal, gracias al SÍ a la pregunta 3.

Esto, que fue definido durante la campaña por Correa como un “golpe de Estado”, implica que funcionarios del anterior gobierno que permanecían en la administración actual en cargos clave puedan perder sus puestos, cambiando el balance de poder a favor del grupo morenista.

En un movimiento oficialista (Alianza PAIS) dividido, con funcionarios y legisladores que reparten sus fidelidades entre Moreno y Correa, el paso de los organismos de control -incluyendo contraloría general y procuraduría- a uno de los dos bandos puede implicar un golpe mortal para el otro.

Pero hay elementos para no descartar a Correa del juego político ecuatoriano, por lo menos a corto plazo.

¿De qué porcentaje hablamos?

Durante la jornada electoral, el ala correísta de Alianza PAIS -que en realidad se ha desafiliado formalmente de la agrupación política y busca formar otro movimiento bajo el nombre de Revolución Ciudadana- indicó en las redes sociales que se confirmarían como fuerza política si el NO superaba el 30%.

Esta afirmación puede deberse a que ese porcentaje es considerado por los correístas como absolutamente incondicional a su causa (que con estos resultados muestra que no se habría pasado al lado morenista), o a que el expresidente sabía de antemano por los sondeos preelectorales que no podía ganar en ninguna pregunta y le puso un “piso” a su derrota.

Lo cierto es que con más de la mitad de los votos escrutados, el “No” no supera el 30% en las preguntas 1 y 4 que planteaban la inhabilitación permanentemente de la política a los condenados por corrupción y la no prescripción de los delitos sexuales contra menores y adolescentes, pero sí lo hace en las otras.

Durante los últimos días de la campaña electoral el correísmo dejó en claro que estaba haciendo campaña por el “No” en las preguntas 2, 3 y 6, las referidas a la reelección indefinida, el Consejo de Participación Ciudadana y Control Social que designa los organismos de control y la ley orgánica para evitar la especulación sobre el valor de las tierras.

En estas tres preguntas el “No” supera el 35% de los votos.

Ecuador

Fuente: CNE. Resultados con el 95% de los votos escrutados.

Pero, ¿significa esto un éxito del ex presidente?

Para los analistas consultados por BBC Mundo antes de la consulta Lenín Moreno podía obtener una victoria agridulce (un triunfo “pírrico”) si no lograba más del 60% en las preguntas clave, pero esto no sucedió y por lo tanto el actual mandatario puede festejar.

El problema es que no festeja solo.

Paternidad compartida

En su análisis previo a los comicios publicado en el portal digital GKillcity, el excandidato a presidente Norman Wray escribió:

“Si triunfa el “Sí”, de manera contundente, la oposición argumentará que el triunfo no fue sólo gubernamental, sino que se debió gracias a su apoyo: y que en ningún sentido es un ‘cheque en blanco’ a favor de Moreno”.

Esto ocurre porque el “Sí” tiene muchas caras, no solo la del presidente sino también la de políticos opositores como Guillermo Lasso (quien perdió las elecciones con Moreno en 2017), Jaime Nebot (alcalde de Guayaquil y líder de los socialcristianos) y Mauricio Rodas (alcalde de Quito y fundador del movimiento SUMA), entre otros.

Todos ellos se disputan la paternidad del triunfo del “Sí” mientras el “No” parece tener un solo padre: Correa.

¿Qué es preferible entonces se preguntan los correístas, un 70% de los votos repartido entre muchos o un 30% representado -casi en su totalidad- solo por uno?

Dos factores pueden conspirar contra un resurgir del correísmo: la incapacidad del expresidente para encontrar un sucesor (algo que queda demostrado en su actual pelea con Moreno y que hoy se vuelve vital al quedar inhabilitado para competir por la presidencia) y las posibles causas judiciales que podrían abrirse en su contra cuando cambien los organismos de control en el país.

Pero incluso los medios que se enfrentaron a él durante su mandato no se apuran a darlo por muerto.

En su columna de opinión publicada en el diario El Universo, el analista Adrián Pérez Salazar recuerda al filósofo medieval Boecio quien describió a la fortuna como una gran rueda donde los que se halla en la cima pronto se encuentran por debajo, mientras los que están debajo de repente van para arriba.

“¿Quién se iba a imaginar hace tan solo un año el lamentable estado en el que Rafael Correa se encuentra hoy? ¿Quién se hubiese imaginado que el mismo hombre que gozaba del incontestable poder del Estado tuvo que mendigar votos por las calles, traicionado por su propio partido, cubierto de huevos rotos y convertido en una mofa ambulante?”, dice el columnista.

Pero advierte: “Sin embargo, si hemos de tomar en serio la reflexión de Boecio, debemos considerar la posibilidad de que el correísmo no esté muerto y que el que hoy está siendo aplastado por la rueda de la fortuna vuelva a subir. Debemos considerar que el mendigo vuelva a ser rey”.

Según Pérez Salazar esto puede ocurrir porque el modelo económico ecuatoriano basado en el gasto público, la toma de deuda y la venta de petróleo hoy se ha vuelto impracticable.

Y si Moreno -ahora que el triunfo en la consulta le dio mayor respaldo político- toma medidas impopulares: un ajuste económico -según el columnista- revitalizaría la figura de Correa.

“DESPUÉS DE 10 AÑOS EN QUE LA BOLITA BLANCA CAÍA SIEMPRE EN EL CASILLERO DE CORREA, HOY EL GANADOR DE LA JORNADA ES MORENO. MAÑANA… NADIE SABE”.

En un país que se apresta a reformar su Constitución por tercera vez en los últimos 10 años y que ha ido a las urnas más de 10 veces en lo que va del siglo, la rueda de la fortuna de Boecio corre tan rápido como la ruleta del casino.

Después de 10 años en que la bolita blanca caía siempre en el casillero de Correa, hoy el ganador de la jornada es Moreno. Mañana… nadie sabe.

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